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View Full Version : Some facts of chances (upgrading and stuff like that)


Judobreaker
15-02-2008, 07:41 PM
I remember posting something about this once or twice but I couldn't find it here anymore so I guess I'll just write this story again. ^^

I always see many people complaining about how jewel rates are lower then the admins tell you they are, I would like to try and explain that this is not the case.

First though, I would like to say something about people claiming that failing other items helps improve the chances of upgrading an item.
They 'prove' this through statistics.
Sorry for the people that say so but this is absolute gibberish.
Failing an item will increase the chance of you upgrading the next item just as much as it will increase the chance of your friend upgrading the next item.
While these people say that you can actually use statistics to make sure your chances get higher it is actually the other way around.
Statistics are created by failing or upgrading an item, if one fails the statistics change, not the chances of upgrading the next item.

Now, keeping this in mind, I will show you what the chances of upgrading items really are through some math.
I must warn you, the math I use can be quite complicated for people that aren't familiar with it.
I calculate chances with numbers between 0 and 1 (1 being 100%, 0 being 0%).
So for example, 0.75 = 75%.





Ok, let's calculate!
Note: All calculations are based on items with Luck!

If you are not interested in these calculations you can just skip to the list of outcomes to the bottom. ^^

To get an item from +0 to +6 you will need 6 blesses.
Blesses are 100% so basically there shouldn't be any problem here.

To get an item from +6 to +9 you will need 3 souls.
Souls have a success rate of 75%.
This means the chances of getting the item from +6 to +9 without failing are:
0.75^3 = 0.42188
That is about 42%.

To get an item to +10 is 75%.
To +11, +12 and +13 is 70%.
This means that the chances of upgrading a +9 item to +13 without failing are:
0.75 * 0.70^3 = 0.25725
That is about 25% (so it is likely that 3 out of 4 items fail).

Now a very interesting question is of course, what are the chances of upgrading a +6 item to +13 (the total of the above two).
These are:
75% for every step from +6 to +10.
70% for every step from +11 to +13.
Calculation:
0.75^4 * 0.70^3 = 0.10853
That is about 11% (so it is likely that 9 out of 10 items will fail somewhere along the way).

Now to add JoLs.
The JoL success rate is 60%.
To get from +0 to +28 you will need 7 JoLs.
This means the chances of upgrading the item to +28 without failing are:
0.60^7 = 0.02799
That is about 3% (so it is likely that 97 out of 100 items will fail somewhere along the way).





That's it for the calculations.
Here are the outcomes in a row:

Items with Luck:
From +6 to +9 without failing: 42%
From +9 to +13 without failing: 25%
From +6 to +13 without failing: 11%

Items without Luck:
From +6 to +9 without failing: 34%
From +9 to +13 without failing: 19%
From +6 to +13 without failing: 7%

Other chances:
Options from +0 to +28 without failing: 3%


You can not change these chances in any way!
These are cold hard facts, any 'statistical changes' to the chance will apply to anyone in the whole server so basically there's not really any change at all.


If you want me to calculate any other chances, just ask me here.

If anyone does not agree with me about whether you can change the chances through statistics then do so in a new topic please (if you do, please do so in General Discussion), this is a guide and I don't want it to get spammed with complete discussions. ^^

Heavenly2
15-02-2008, 07:57 PM
Hey , nice caculations but i go off of , that my chances of success comes from being really LUCKY at it. eheheh

SoulReapeR
16-02-2008, 03:10 AM
Nice Work JudoB :thumbsup:

Judobreaker
16-02-2008, 03:35 AM
Hey , nice caculations but i go off of , that my chances of success comes from being really LUCKY at it. eheheh

Hehe, yea, these are chances which means there always is the chance to succeed.
Anf if you are lucky you never fail. (You gotta be extremely lucky but technically it's possible. :P)

B-BOY
16-02-2008, 03:36 AM
yea good work but i didnt understand that last part

Judobreaker
16-02-2008, 07:59 AM
You mean the calculations? ^^

crandon42
16-02-2008, 08:56 AM
i have a question if you use jol on an item before you get it to +9 will it make the chance of using souls on the item to get +9 lower?

Phoenix
16-02-2008, 09:08 AM
i have a question if you use jol on an item before you get it to +9 will it make the chance of using souls on the item to get +9 lower?

Not at all... jewels don't increase or decrease other jewels success chance...

Hitachi
16-02-2008, 10:37 AM
Not at all... jewels don't increase or decrease other jewels success chance...
hmm but it would be sweet if theres was a jwl like that , but thats just me8)

Zukih28s
16-02-2008, 11:07 AM
Im proud of ur calculation^^
When u fail just prepare to hit someone next to u, it will relax u big time, been through it^^

Judobreaker
16-02-2008, 12:25 PM
Im proud of ur calculation^^
When u fail just prepare to hit someone next to u, it will relax u big time, been through it^^

Hehe, that's so true. xD


By the way, I found a rumor about actually increasing the chances of upgrading!

I heard from some... if u step in poo u got 100% success for 24 hrs :P

Can someone try this and confirm it...?

Dolfa17
20-02-2008, 01:54 PM
mm nice maths bro :D And your calculations are also great.Ty for helping us mate! :rofl: :rofl:
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