Gambling with the Chaos Machine

[BeastyGirl]

Originally Posted by Winger

...and 1 more thing, i realised that if u dont even care about the item, it will succeed lol

LOL, Winger is the Mindmaster of CM :yes:

[grilzzz]

so wraith what ur saying is, i make a crappy item fail in cm by only adding souls to +9 then put in cm and let it fail?.. or just have a crappy item fail at +9 (raised with bless and souls)..

i think wraith is right.. after failing 1-2 times u have more chance to succeed the next time. like flip a coin, after 2-3 times on 1 side, u have more chance that the next flip will be the other side.. very hard to get 10 times on same side

[Wraithpro]

The first part you mentioned Cupra is wrong, What you do is Use Souls on a +L Crappy Item and count how many Succeeds/Fail comes out, do it four times first because to +10 it's 75% chance to Fail so if you +3 a +0 +L Item then DON'T go in the Cm because it will fail.

[Zukih28s]

i dont get this, how about i giv u the item adnjewels and u help me out??? GM ate my items like 1k time(exagerating) but alot of time. so yea... why not u do it, i get emotional lol.

[lampard8]

ok well il cut the bull i followed wraiths guide an i made my 1st ever dragon wings+13+12+luck+ignore im sooooooo happy hahahah yippeeee wahoooo it migh just of been fluke but ty anyways wraith =DDDDD

[ozio]

Don't belive this thread! It's all lies!

Originally Posted by Wraithpro

do you know why you might think such things:icon5: Because the probability of going up +4 in a row is improbable (not impossible).

upgrading +9+luck item to +13:
0.75 * 0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 = 0,25725 = 25,725%

Originally Posted by Wraithpro

Well in this thread im going to teach you (or try to teach you) how to cheat the nasty Chaos Machine.

Statisics is a field laughed at when its described as a mathmatical teaching because its based on probability and not an exact answer. (Its just an educated guess)

you can't cheat chaos machine and you do not understand statisics. if you understood statistics you wouldn't write such ridiculous things.

Originally Posted by Wraithpro

Now when somthing says it has a 75% chance to succeed what does that tell you. That 3 out of 4 are on average what succeeds. Remember that 3 out of 4 is the same percentage as 6 out of 8. So say you try to upgrade an item with only Souls(still 75% chance of succession just like Chaos Machine to +10) and fail your first try. You failed once so the chances of failing again are a lot lower.

It's simply not true.
even if you flip a coin 99 times and it turns out heads it still is 50% change to be heads in the next throw!

Originally Posted by Wraithpro

Because now u have failed 1 out of 4 (25%) so technically the next 3 should succeed.

nope, the chances are still exactly the same. previos success or failure have no effect on the chance of the next success

Originally Posted by Wraithpro

Time to go to the Chaos Machine, *Ding* you just +10 an item that was already +9 because the odds were for you. The actual percent of failing 75% 2 times in a row is 12.5%. (About just as often as failing a chaos fruit)

if you upgrade someting without falure you just were lucky, nothing more.
he actual percent of failing 75% 2 times in a row is 6,25% (25% * 25%)

Originally Posted by Wraithpro

Ok theres +10 now onto +11.... Take a breath. :dizzy: This is where it gets tricky. Because the Mu Creators decided to drop 5% to +11, now u have 70% chance to succeed to +11. Scary stuff... ok you try to soul your crap item. You succeed a few to many times befor u fail so u go again. ... succeed... fail... cool you crap item is now a crap item +0. ALRIGHT:icon4: :icon4: :icon4: Chaos Machine time (Why u ask, because after succeeding a few more times u failed again.... Thats why. Remember your crap item has 75% chance and +11 is a 70% chance. This raises your chance to fail 2 times in a row a significant amount. It has now increased to 23%. Now I caution you 23% might not seem like a lot compared to the 30% chance to fail it was before. But it's still risky. *Ding* +11 Noice . Since the +12 an +13 dont drop in percentage does not decrease you repeat the same process with the same odds. But if you're still scared. Let your crap item fail 2 times in a row... Failing 75% 2 times in a row will pretty much make you +12 or 13 a sure thing. (about 14% like +10 was)

all you do souling up a useless item is wanste jewels!!!

Originally Posted by Wraithpro

Now I'm not saying go crazy with the Chaos Machine because even I still fail here and there, but my successions have increased greatly adopting this method. and another thing if you succeed 9 times and then fail...Then you just succeed 9/10 so another failure is likely to happen...make sure your successions and failures are pretty tightly nit, like succeed 2 then fail then succeed 3 and fail, then succeed once and fail.. This tightly nit sequence is ideal for this method (or should I say necessary) you succeed 9 times or even 8 in a row, its time to stop and let sombody else fail their item and try again tommorow.

The Chaos Machine no matter how hard you calculate can be extremly unpredictable, I will take no blame for you failing a bunch of items because that just tells me that you didnt completly understand how this works, or you were just being careless. Keep in mind just because it's a lower chance, you just might win the lottery, I've had 4 fails in a row streak once. I wasnt very happy (improbable not Impossible). If there are any questions.... and i know there will be just post here, and I would also love to hear positive feedback of this method working for you.

all this method does is make people waste jewels and just be more confident about using CM for no reason.
CM is unpredictable because it's random.
Only a good testing of 1000 upgrades using both normal and your method could statistically prove if it's right or wrong.
The only way to be safe using chaos machine is to have a backup item.

[Shrewd]

I 100% agree with you.

[lampard8]

but 3576523745259.678645765697.85965767518 is just all numbers to me so who cares i got my wings muahahahahha yipeeeee yahooooooo!!!!

[EscaLayer]

i hope i knew how the random number generator works...

all wraithpro is saying is logical if chances for soul and chaos machine is connected (chance in general) which i doubt...

i might try this but im not expecting much...

its just what 0zio stated... after an outcome is decided, chances are still the same

try not to take chances as a whole...

btw nice guide... havent thought about this...

[Pl4tinum]

failing before you up your precious is better than going for it stright tbh. and own freewill doesnt have a percentage ~ just try it ozio and you'll see the difference.